Ku mpuzandengo ya 2020, umugore wo mu Rwanda abyara abana 3.9, umubare uri hejuru cyane y’impuzandengo yo ku rwego rw’Isi, aho umugore abyara abana 2.4, uretse ko nanone u Rwanda rwateye intambwe ifatika kuko bahoze ari abana 4.1 mu 2017 na 4.5 mu 2010.
Kuri ibi hiyongeraho ko impuzandengo y’imyaka y’Abanyarwanda ari 20 gusa, bivuze ko abakiri bato bakeneye kuzabyara mu bihe biri imbere ari benshi, ku buryo kwitega ko umubare w’abana bavuka mu Rwanda uzagabanuka mu gihe cya vuba, byaba ari ukwigiza nkana.
Kubera iyo mpamvu, Abanyarwanda tuzakomeza kwiyongera, aho tuzaba turi miliyoni 14 mu 2025, tugere kuri miliyoni 16 mu 2030 ndetse na miliyoni 22 mu 2050.
Twakwiyongera twagira, hari amahirwe menshi y’uko ubuso bw’ubutaka dutuyeho buzakomeza kuba 26.338 km2, byumvikanisha ko ikibazo cy’ubucucike bw’abaturage dufite uyu munsi ntaho cyenda kujya ndetse uwavuga ko turi mu mwanya mwiza wo kwiga kubana na cyo ntiyaba akabije.
Ubu bucucike si inkuru mbarirano kuko u Rwanda ruri mu bihugu bifite ubucucike bukabije ku Isi, aho kuri kilometero kare imwe, tuhatuye turi 525 (525/1km2), agahigo twihariye muri Afurika kuko nta kindi gihugu gituwe cyane gutyo, ukuyemo ibirwa.
Kugira ngo ubyumve neza, wibaze ko u Rwanda rutuwe kurusha u Bushinwa bufite abaturage miliyari 1.4, ariko bukagira kilometero kare 9.388.211, bituma ubucucike bw’abaturage buba 153/1km2.
Uretse u Bushinwa, u Rwanda rutuwe kurusha u Buhinde bwa kabiri mu kugira abaturage benshi ku Isi, bangana na miliyari 1.3. Iki gihugu gituwe n’abaturage 463/km2 kuko gifite kilometero kare 2.973.190.
Impuzandengo y’abaturage b’Isi kuri km2 ni abantu 58.7/km2, mu gihe muri Afurika ari abantu 43/km2, ibipimo u Rwanda ruheruka kera cyane mbere ya 1960, nabwo icyo gihe kilometero kare imwe yari ituyeho abantu 119 (119/km2).
Tuzabona ibidukwiriye?
Mu Isi y’inyamaswa, buri kimwe cyose kigerwaho binyuze mu ikoreshwa ry’imbaraga. Iyo intare y’ingabo imaze kugimbuka igeze ku myaka itatu, iva mu muryango yavukiyemo ikajya kwibeshaho. Kugira ngo ireme umuryango wayo bwite, bisaba ko irwana n’indi ntare isanzwe iwufite, yayitsimbura ikawugumana, yakubitwa inshuro igakomeza ikajya kurwariza ahandi.
Ku bantu siko bigenda kuko bagira amategeko agena uko babona umutungo, ariko kimwe no mu Isi y’inyamaswa, buri gihe cyose ikintu runaka kibaye iyanga kandi gikenewe na benshi, ihangana riratangira ku buryo kibona umugabo kigasiba undi, nk’uko biri kugenda muri iyi minsi ku nkingo za Covid-19.
Nubwo ikibazo cy’ubwinshi bw’abaturage kitaza mu by’ibanze bihangayikishije u Rwanda, hari ababona ko gifite umwihariko kuko Abanyarwanda barenga 80% batuye mu cyaro, bityo bagashingira ubuzima bwabo ku buhinzi butunze abarenga 70%, na cyane ko ubutaka bw’u Rwanda budafite umutungo kamere uhagije, ndetse n’abaturage benshi bakaba badafite ubumenyi bwabatunga badashingiye ku butaka.
Ikibazo ni uko no muri ubwo buhinzi, bacye cyane babukora kinyamwuga kuko badafite ubutaka buhagije bwo guhingaho, bigatuma n’ubundi budatanga umusaruro ufatika nubwo bwitwa ko bukorwa n’Abanyarwanda benshi.
Ku rundi ruhande, ubuto bw’ubutaka bw’u Rwanda bukenewe na benshi butuma igiciro cyabwo gitumbagira, aho Raporo yo mu 2019 yakozwe n’Urugaga rw’Abakora Umwuga w’Igenagaciro k’Imitungo Itimukanwa mu Rwanda (Institute of Real Property Valuers in Rwanda, IRPV), yagaragaje ko igiciro cy’ubutaka mu Mujyi wa Kigali mu gace ka Kimironko kuri metero kare imwe, ari ibihumbi 169 Frw.
Bivuze ko nk’umuntu wahaguze ikibanza cya metero kare 300 cyo kubakamo inzu yo guturamo nk’uko amategeko agena ibipimo by’ibibanza abiteganya, yishyuye miliyoni 50.7 Frw, amafaranga atari macye mu gihugu gifite umuturage winjiza impuzandengo 819$ (ibihumbi 821 Frw) ku mwaka (2020).
Uretse kuba ubutaka bwo mu Rwanda buhenze, buri no mu bitera amakimbirane mu muryango Nyarwanda kuko Raporo y’Urwego rw’Umuvunyi yo mu 2019/2020, yagaragaje ko ibibazo by’ubutaka bigize 32.4% by’ibibazo by’akarengane uru Rwego rwakiriye muri uwo mwaka, ari na cyo cyiciro cyatanzwemo ibirego byinshi.
Uru ruhurirane rw’ibibazo rwatumye mu 2010, ubwo yarimo kwiyamamariza kuyobora u Rwanda, Dr. Jean Damascène Ntawukuriryayo wigeze kuba Minisitiri w’Ubuzima, avuga ko ikibazo cy’ubwiyongere bw’abaturage ari imbogamizi ikomeye cyane, ati “Turi igihugu gito, ubwiyongere bw’abaturage nibukomeza gutya, tuzagira ikibazo kinini cyane".
Mu kiganiro na IGIHE, Umugishwanama mu bijyanye n’ubukungu n’imari, Habyarimana Straton, yavuze ko kwiyongera kw’abaturage ari umukoro ku bukungu bw’igihugu, kuko buba bugomba kuzamuka ku muvuduko wo hejuru kugira ngo bukwire ababukeneye bose.
Yagize ati “Iyo abantu ari benshi cyane kurusha ubushobozi bw’igihugu bwo kubaha imirimo, biba ari imbogamizi kuko ba baturage badakora babeshwaho n’inkunga za Leta, ugasanga birahenze, kandi abo bantu bakabaye binjiza imisoro. Ibyo rero iyo bikomeje igihe kirekire, abaturage bashobora kwigumura bikabyara ibindi bibazo birimo umutekano mucye n’ibindi byinshi.”
Kuki Leta itashyiraho umubare w’abana ntarengwa ku muryango?
Mu 1980, Leta y’u Bushinwa yashyizeho itegeko rivuga ko umuryango ugomba kugira umwana umwe, bitewe n’ubwiyongere budasanzwe bw’abaturage bwariho muri ibyo bihe, aho umugore umwe yabyaraga abana 2.6.
Iyi gahunda yafashije kugabanya umuvuduko w’abaturage mu Bushinwa, ndetse binatuma abagore babona umwanya munini wo gukora bakiteza imbere, bigira ingaruka nziza ku bukungu muri rusange.
Mu baturage twaganiriye mu Mujyi wa Kigali, bavuze ko ikibazo cy’ubwiyongere bw’abaturage giteye inkeke, ariko bidakwiye ko Leta igena umubare w’abana umuryango umwe utagomba kurenza.
Rukundo (amazina twayahinduye) yagize ati “Uko abaturage tuba benshi, niko birushaho kugora Leta kuko buri gihe izahora yongera ibikorwaremezo birimo amashuri n’amavuriro. Ariko nanone Leta ntiyategeka abantu kutarenza umubare runaka w’abana kuko nubwo byakunze mu Bushinwa, biragoye ko byakunda mu Rwanda kuko dufite imico itandukanye cyane. Umuco wacu utwereka ko abana ari amaboko y’umuryango.”
Iki gitekerezo cyo kubyara umwana umwe cyigeze kuganirwaho mu Nteko Ishinga Amategeko yari yatumije Minisitiri w’Intebe, Edouard Ngirente mu 2018, maze Umunyamabanga wa Leta muri Minisiteri y’Ubutegetsi bw’Igihugu ushinzwe Imibereho Myiza y’Abaturage, Nyirarukundo Ignatienne, wari umudepite icyo gihe, avuga ko kuba Abanyarwanda bashishikarizwa kubyara umwana umwe atari ’ikinegu’.
Icyo gihe yagize ati “Ntabwo Abanyarwanda bayobewe kurera abana babo ariko n’imibare ubwayo irivugira. Kuva ku bana 5.6 ukagera kuri 4.3 mu myaka hafi 20, ni ukuvuga ngo tuzagera ku bana babiri nk’uko abantu babyifuzaga mu gihe cy’imyaka nka 60. Ntabwo dukwiye kubwira umuntu ko kubyara umwana umwe ari ikinegu.”
Kuri Mukama Abbas wari Visi Perezida w’Umutwe w’Abadepite, ubu akaba ari Umuvunyi Wungirije, yavuze ko ubuyobozi budakwiye gutinya kuvuga kuri iki kibazo.
Ati "Twagombye gutekereza uru Rwanda abo tuzarusigira. None se nidukomeza gutya amafaranga y’igihugu aho kugira ngo ajye mu iterambere akajya muri izo gahunda zindi bizarangira bite? Iyi gahunda yo kuringaniza imbyaro nibiba ngombwa hazafatwa icyemezo gikomeye ariko turengere igihugu cyacu […] Nibiba ngombwa hakaba n’ibihano bikorwe. Nidutinya ni twe tuzabibazwa.”
Icyo gihe Minisitiri w’Intebe yavuze ko u Rwanda rutabuza abantu kubyara abana bifuza, ati "Umuntu ubyaye yagombye kurera, nubwo Leta ifasha ariko umuntu urera wa mbere ni umubyeyi. Ababyeyi rero kurera bisobanuye ko bagira ubushobozi bugomba kugendana n’abana umuntu abyaye […] Twe nka Leta ntabwo tuvuga umubare w’abana umuntu abyara ariko twumvisha abantu ko bagomba kubyara abana bazarerwa kandi bakavamo abanyarwanda beza.
Kuri Habyarimana, kuba Leta yabuza abaturage kubyara abana barenze umwe biragoye, bitewe n’imiterere y’ubuyobozi bw’u Rwanda itandukanye n’iy’u Bushinwa kuko ishingiye kuri demokarasi, bityo abaturage bakaba bafite ubwisanzure bwisumbuye.
Yagize ati “Mu Rwanda abaturage bafite ubwigenge, kubabuza kubyara byagorana cyane bitewe n’umuco, amadini n’ibindi nk’ibyo, icyakora Leta ishobora gushyiraho ingamba zituma abaturage batabyara abana benshi binyuze mu kubigisha no guteza imbere uburyo bwo kuboneza urubyaro ku bagabo n’abagore.”
Muri rusange, umwaka wa 2019 warangiye Abanyarwanda 1.570.783 barimo abagabo 3.506 bifungishije burundu, bakoresha uburyo butandukanye bwo kuboneza urubyaro. Mu bagore bubatse, 64% bakoresha bumwe mu buryo bwo kuboneza urubyaro.
Habyarimana yangoyeho ko “Leta ikwiye gukomeza gushyira imbaraga mu bikorwa biteza imbere ubuzima bw’abaturage, ibyo nibigerwaho abaturage nta kibazo bazagira kandi ubona ko biri mu nzira nziza.”
Leta izahangana ite n’ubwiyongere bukabije bw’abaturage?
Ikibazo kibazwa kuri iyi ngingo y’ubwiyongere bukabije bw’abaturage, ni uburyo Leta iri kwitegura kuzahanga n’iki kibazo mu bihe biri imbere, ku buryo aba baturage bazayibera amaboko aho kuyibera umutwaro.
Habyarimana yavuze ko “Iyo urebye imyitwarire n’ibikorwa bya Leta, ubona ko iki kibazo cyamaze gutekerezwaho kandi kiri gushyirirwaho umurongo mu buryo burambye.”
Uyu mugabo abishingira ku ishoramari Leta iri gushyira mu rwego rw’uburezi, avuga ko ari rwo ruzatanga umwanzuro ku ngaruka z’ubwiyongere bw’abaturage.
Yagize ati “Leta iri guteza imbere uburezi kandi urebye neza ni yo nzira izatuma abaturage bagira ubushobozi bwo kwiteza imbere, bakubaka ubukungu budashingiye ku butaka, ku buryo n’umuntu utabufite atazirirwa arwana no kubugura, kuko azaba afite ubundi buryo bwinshi bwo kumutunga akoresheje ubumenyi bwe.”
Mu ngengo y’imari y’uyu mwaka (hashingiwe ku mushinga wayo), urwego rw’uburezi rwagenewe miliyari zirenga 180.5 Frw. Leta kandi imaze igihe muri gahunda yo kubaka ibyumba by’amashuri 22.500 azatuma ikibazo cy’umubyigano mu mashuri abanza n’ayisumbuye gicika burundu.
Habyarimana avuga ko nyuma yo gufasha abanyeshuri bose kubona uburyo bwo kwiga, “Leta ikwiye no gusuzuma ikibazo cy’ireme ry’uburezi, kuko abanyeshuri nibarangiza badafite ubushobozi bwo kwihangira umurimo cyangwa bwo gukora imirimo runaka igahabwa abanyamahanga n’ubundi nta musaruro urambye tuzabona.”
Iki kibazo na cyo kiri kuvugutirwa umuti kuko mu ngengo y’imari y’uyu mwaka, umushinga wo kuzamura ireme ry’uburezi bw’Ibanze hagamijwe kongera abakozi bafite ubumenyi kandi bashoboye wagenewe miliyari 25.1 Frw.
Habyarimana kandi yavuze ko kuba Leta iri kuzamura inzego zirimo ubukerarugendo n’inganda zizatanga akazi ku bantu benshi, ari indi ntambwe mu gukemura ikibazo cy’ubwiyongere bw’abaturage, by’umwihariko ibi byanya by’inganda bikaba biri kujyanwa mu mijyi yunganira Kigali, ibizatuma abaturage bava mu buhinzi bagakora indi mirimo.
Ku rundi ruhande, Leta yamaze gutunganya igishushanyo mbonera cy’imikoreshereje y’ubutaka kigenewe kuzatuma abaturage miliyoni 22 babona aho kuba mu 2050.
Iki gishushanyo kigena ko ubuhinzi n’ubworozi buzakorerwa kuri kilometero kare 12.433, bingana na 51,5% by’ubutaka. Amashyamba yahariwe kilometero kare 7.725, bingana na 32% naho imiturire n’ibikorwaremezo bigenerwa kilometero kare 3.980 (15,1%). Amazi n’ibishanga bikomye n’imbago zabyo byihariye kilometero kare 2.200( 8,5 %).
Ubwiyongere bw’abantu n’uburyo bakoresha umutungo w’Isi, bizatuma ku itariki ya 29 Nyakanga, tuzaba tumaze gukoresha umutungo w’Isi twakabaye dukoresha mu mwaka wose, ibizwi nka ‘Earth Overshoot Day’.
Ubu bwiyongere bw’abantu n’ibyo bakenera, butuma kuri ubu Isi itakibasha kuduhaza, ku buryo ikeneye ubuso buyikubye inshuro 1.7 kugira ngo ikomeze kuduhaza. Ku ruhande rw’u Rwanda, rukeneye ubuso burukubye 1.8, kugira ngo rukomeze guhaza abarutuye nk’uko bigaragazwa na Raporo y’Ikigo cya Global Footprint Network.
