Mu mpera za 2019, Isi yongeye guhura n’isanganya ry’amateka, ubwo icyorezo cya Covid-19 cyatangiraga guca ibintu hirya no hino, bikarangira kigize ingaruka zikomeye ku bukungu kuko kukirinda byasabaga guhagarika ibikorwa byari bisanzwe bikorwa mu buzima bwa buri munsi, bityo ibikorwa by’ubukungu bihinduka igitambo cyo kurengera amagara ya muntu.
Icyakora kuva na mbere ubwo ibikorwa byo gusubika imirimo byari birimbanyije hirya no hino ku Isi, bitewe n’igabanuka rya Covid-19, byari bizwi neza ko hari impinduka zikomeye zizabaho mu miterere y’ubukungu bw’Isi, yaba mu rwego rwo gutwara ibicuruzwa, imikorere ya za banki, itakazagaciro k’ifaranga, ubwiyongere bw’ubushomeri n’ibindi byinshi.
Kugira ngo leta zirinde ingaruka zikomeye z’iki cyorezo, zafashe ingamba zirimo gusubukura ibikorwa vuba na bwangu nyuma yo gutanga inkingo, ariko hanashyirwaho uburyo bwo kugoboka ibikorwa by’ubucuruzi byahungabanyijwe n’iki cyorezo.
No mu Rwanda ibi byarakozwe, aho Leta yashyizeho Ikigega Nzahurabukungu gifite agaciro karenga miliyari 300 Frw, agomba kwifashishwa mu kugoboka ibigo by’ubucuruzi byagizweho ingaruka zikomeye n’iki cyorezo.
Kimwe mu byitaweho cyane mu Rwanda, ni ugukomeza gucunga no kurinda ubusugire bw’urwego rw’imari, aho Banki Nkuru y’Igihugu (BNR) yagabanyije inyungu fatizo kuri banki zifuza inguzanyo, ndetse Leta yanashyize imari ifatika muri izi banki, kugira ngo zikomeze zigire ubushobozi bwo gukomeza imirimo yazo, cyane cyane gutanga inguzanyo.
Nta byera ngo de!
Impinduka zakozwe mu kurengera urwego rw’imari mu Rwanda, zatumye mu bihe bitandukanye abarukuriye bakomeza gutanga icyizere cy’ubusugire bwarwo ndetse ibi bigaragazwa n’uburyo rukomeje gukura muri ibi bihe igihugu kiri kwivana mu kaga cyatewe na Covid-19.
Nk’ubu Raporo y’Ikigo gikora ubushakashatsi mu bijyanye n’imiterere y’inguzanyo, TransUnion Rwanda, yagaragaje ko mu gihe cy’umwaka, kuva muri Kamena 2020 kugera muri Kamena uyu mwaka, umutungo wa banki zo mu Rwanda wazamutse ku kigero cya 20%, uva kuri miliyari 3.853 Frw, ugera kuri miliyari 4.624 Frw.
Iri zamuka ryagizwemo uruhare n’ubwiyongere bw’inguzanyo zitangwa, ndetse n’ubwiyongere bw’amafaranga abitswa muri banki, agize 80% by’umutungo wa banki zo mu Rwanda.
Inguzanyo zatswe n’abakiliya bari ku rwego mpuzamahanga nazo zatumye uyu mutungo uzamuka, mu gihe inkunga ya Leta ndetse no kugurizanya hagati ya banki ubwazo nabyo byatumye zikomeza kugira ubusugire muri ibi bihe bitari byoroshye.
Icyakora nubwo hakozwe byinshi mu gukomeza gusigasira urwego rw’imari, ingaruka z’icyorezo cya Covid-19 ku bukungu nazo ntizihwema kwigaragaza, kuko nk’ubu inguzanyo zitishyurwa neza zikomeje kuba ku gipimo kirenze igifatwa nk’igisanzwe.
Mu gihembwe cya gatatu cy’uyu mwaka, izi nguzanyo zageze kuri 6,6%, mu gihe zari kuri 5,1% mu gihembwe cya kabiri ndetse na 5,2% mu gihembwe cya mbere cy’uyu mwaka. Iki kibazo kandi gifite umurego muri banki ugereranyije n’ibigo by’imari iciriritse.
Muri banki, inguzanyo zitishyurwa neza zari ku kigero cya 7,5% mu gihembwe cya gatatu uyu mwaka, zivuye kuri 6,4% mu gihembwe cya kabiri. Mu bigo by’imari iciriritse, bisanzwe bitanga inguzanyo nto kandi zishyurwa ku nyungu nto, ikigero cy’inguzanyo zitishyurwa neza mu gihembwe cya gatatu cyageze kuri 5,2%, kivuye kuri 3,5% mu gihembwe cya kabiri cy’uyu mwaka.
Ubusanzwe, BNR iteganya ko ikigero cy’inguzanyo zitishyurwa neza kitagombwa kurenga 5%.
Banki zitangiye kwikandagira
Uretse ubwiyongere bw’inguzanyo zitishyurwa zikomeje kuzamuka kabone nubwo hashyizweho ingamba nyinshi zo gukumira icyo kibazo, ikindi kibazo gitangiye kwigaragaza ku isoko ry’imari ry’u Rwanda ni uburyo banki zitangiye kugenda biguru ntege mu gutanga inguzanyo.
Nk’ubu mu gihembwe cya gatatu cy’uyu mwaka, inguzanyo zatanzwe zagabanutseho 53,8%, ugereranyije n’igihembwe nk’icyo umwaka ushize. Muri iki gihembwe, banki zatanze inguzanyo zifite agaciro ka miliyari 193,43 Frw, ugereranyije na miliyari 418,21 Frw zari zatanzwe mu gihembwe nk’icyo mu mwaka ushize.
Mbere y’umwaduko wa Covid-19, inguzanyo zitangwa na banki zazamukaga ku kigero gishimishije, aho hagati y’Ukuboza 2018 n’Ukuboza 2019 zari zazamutse ku kigero cya 11,4%. Izamuka ry’inguzanyo zitangwa, ni ikimenyetso cy’ubwiyongere bw’ibikorwa bibyara inyungu, ari nabyo bizamuka ubukungu bw’igihugu.
Igabanuka ry’inguzanyo zitangwa rishobora gusobanurwa n’impamvu nyinshi, zirimo iy’uko ubukungu bw’u Rwanda bwari bukizanzamuka nyuma yo kugabanuka ku kigero cya 3,4% umwaka ushize, ibi bigatuma ubucuruzi n’ibikorwa bibushamikiraho bitagenda neza muri rusange, bityo bikagabanya icyizere cy’abashoramari bakabishoyemo imari.
Ibi kandi niko byagenze, kuko umubare w’abahawe inguzanyo wagabanutse, ukava ku 150.067 mu gihembwe cya gatatu cy’umwaka ushize ukagera ku 82.526 mu gihembwe cya gatatu cy’uyu mwaka.
Indi mpamvu ishobora no gushingira ku bwiyongere bw’inguzanyo zitishyurwa neza, ku buryo banki zishobora kwirinda gukomeza gusohora inguzanyo nyinshi nyamara n’izatanzwe zitari kwishyurwa neza, ibishobora kuzigusha mu bihombo bikomeye.
Kutishyurwa neza kw’inguzanyo zafashwe kandi bivuze ko amafaranga banki zitanga nk’inguzanyo nayo agabanuka cyane, bityo banki ntizishamadukire gutanga inguzanyo nyinshi kuko zidafite igishoro gihagije.
Muri rusange, inguzanyo zasabwe mu gihembwe cya gatatu cy’uyu mwaka, zagabanutseho 48,2% ugereranyije n’inguzanyo zasabwe mu gihe nk’icyo umwaka ushize.
Mu bigo by’imari iciriritse naho ibintu si shyashya, kuko umubare w’inguzanyo zatanzwe n’amafaranga yazigiyeho byose byagabanutse cyane muri iki gihembwe, ugereranyije n’icy’umwaka ushize. Hatanzwe inguzanyo zigera ku 14.191 zifite agaciro ka miliyari 19,79 Frw. Imibare iri hasi gutyo yaherukaga mu 2018.
Muri rusange, banki z’ubucuruzi zagize uruhare rungana na 72,1% by’inguzanyo zatanzwe, zitanga inguzanyo zifite agaciro ka miliyari 91,2 Frw (bingana 49,8% by’amafaranga y’inguzanyo yose yatanzwe. Izindi banki nka Banki y’Iterambere n’ibigo by’imari iciriritse, byatanze 38,5% by’agaciro k’inguzanyo zatanzwe, bingana na miliyari 74,52 Frw.
Urubyiruko rwiganje mu basaba inguzanyo nyinshi mu Rwanda, aho abavutse hagati ya 1981 kugera mu 1996 (Millennials), bagize 56,4% by’abasaba inguzanyo, bagakurikirwa n’abavutse hagati ya 1965 na 1980 (Generation X), bagize 21,5% by’abasabye inguzanyo. Abasaba inguzanyo hifashishijwe ikoranabuhanga, cyane cyane mobile money, biganje mu bavutse nyuma ya 1997 (Generation Z) basabye izingana na 68,2% by’izo basabye zose hifashishijwe mobile money.
Aba bavutse nyuma ya 1997 bafite inguzanyo zitishyurwa neza ziri ku kigero cya 7%, bigaterwa n’uko kenshi baba badafite ubumenyi ku bijyanye n’imikoreshereze y’inguzanyo ndetse n’ubumenyi bucye mu bijyanye n’imari.
Ahazaza hahatse iki?
Muri rusange, kwiyongera kw’inguzanyo zitishyurwa neza kwari kwitezwe kabone n’ubwo ibikorwa by’ubucuruzi byari bimaze gusubukurwa. BNR yagize uruhare runini mu gufasha ibigo by’ubucuruzi kuvugurura amasezerano yabyo na za banki z’ubucuruzi zabigurije, gusa nyuma y’umwaka izo ngamba zishyizweho, byinshi mu bigo by’ubucuruzi byatangiye kongera kwishyura, ariko bimwe bikagongwa n’uko ubucuruzi muri rusange butarasubira ku murongo bwahozeho, bikarangira n’ubundi kwishyura inguzanyo bigoranye.
Birumvikana ko mu gihe banki zirimo gutanga inguzanyo nke ugereranyije n’izo zatangaga mbere, kandi umubare w’abazikenera ukaba ugizwe n’urubyiruko, nta kabuza ko iki cyiciro cy’abaturage gishobora kuzakomeza kugirwaho ingaruka n’izi mpinduka, ibintu bishobora no kugira uruhare mu kongera ubushomeri mu gihugu, n’ubundi busanzwe bwiganje mu rubyiruko.
Abahanga mu by’ubukungu bemeza ko izi ngaruka zidakanganye cyane, kuko nubwo ikigero cy’inguzanyo zitishyurwa neza kiri kuzamuka, kikiri hasi ku buryo kitagira ingaruka zikomeye ku bukungu bw’igihugu muri rusange, aho izo ngaruka zatangira gutera impungenge nko mu gihe icyo kigero cyaba kimaze kurenga 10%.
Ikindi cyaba ikibazo gikomeye, ni mu gihe izi ngaruka zamara igihe kirekire, icyakora ibi ntabwo byitezwe kuko izi ngaruka zifatwa nk’iz’igihe gito, zikazagenda zigabanuka bijyanye n’uko ubukungu bw’u Rwanda n’ubwo ku rwego mpuzamahanga buzahuka.
Umuyobozi Ushinzwe Ibicuruzwa muri TransUnion muri Afurika, Samuel Tayengwa, yavuze ko muri rusange izahuka ry’ubukungu rizahita rigira ingaruka nziza ku busugire bw’urwego rw’imari mu Rwanda, ndetse ko izi mpinduka zishobora kwitegwa mu bindi bihembwe biri imbere, na cyane ko ubukungu bw’u Rwanda buzazamuka ku kigero cya 5,1% muri uyu mwaka.
Yongeyeho ko izindi mpinduka zishobora kuzihutisha ubusugire bw’urwego rw’imari, ari ikoreshwa ry’ikoranabuhanga, ati “Tuzabona ishyaka ryo gukoresha ikoranabuhanga muri banki zo mu Rwanda, bitewe n’inyota y’abakiliya bifuza serivisi zihuse. Guhererekanya amafaranga binyuze mu ikoranabuhanga bizarushaho kwiyongera kubera ihangana rya za banki, bikazatuma zirushaho gutanga serivisi zishingiye ku ikoranabuhanga.”
Abahanga mu by’ubukungu bemeza ko igisubizo kirambye kuri ibi bibazo bishobora kugira ingaruka ku rwego rw’imari mu Rwanda, ari ugukora ibishoboka byose imirimo yose igasubukurwa, kandi ibi bikazashingira ku ngano y’inkingo zimaze gutangwa, ingingo Leta y’u Rwanda iri gushyiramo imbaraga nyinshi kuko 50% by’abarengeje imyaka 18 bamaze guhabwa nibura doze imwe y’urukingo rwa Covid-19.
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