Impamvu nayo ntigoye kuyumva kuko Amerika ari igihugu gifite ubukungu bunini, bufite agaciro karenga miliyari ibihumbi 26$, hafi 25% by'ubukungu bwose bw'Isi. Ku rundi ruhande, ifaranga ry'iki gihugu niryo rikoreshwa cyane mu bucuruzi mpuzamahanga, ibituma buri wese arikenera.
Ibibereye muri Amerika n'ibyemezo bihafatirwa, birumvikana ko bigira ingaruka ku rwego mpuzamahanga, ndetse niko biherutse kugenda mu minsi ishize, ubwo ishoramari ku masoko y'imari n'imigabane ryahungabanaga ku rwego mpuzamahanga, cyane cyane biturutse ku byari biri kubera muri Amerika n'ahandi.
Mu Buyapani, iri soko ryatakaje hafi 15% by'agaciro karyo mu ntangiriro z'icyumweru, nubwo ibintu bitangiye gusubira mu buryo magingo aya. Mu bihugu by'u Burayi, igabanuka ryari hagati ya 2% na 7%, gusa naho ibintu biri kugaruka mu buryo.
Mu kiganiro na IGIHE, Umuyobozi Mukuru w'Isoko ry'Imari n'Imigabane ry'u Rwanda (RSE), Celestin Rwabukumba, yavuze ko muri rusange izi ngaruka zitageze ku iri Soko n'ubukungu bw'u Rwanda.
Ati 'Ntabwo byatugizeho ingaruka cyane mu buryo bw'ako kanya, isoko ryacu riracyiyubaka. Ibibazo bitugeraho mu buryo butari ubw'ako kanya. Dushobora kubibonera wenda mu guta agaciro k'ifaranga, ibiciro ku masoko bikazamuka, peteroli iyo yazamutse natwe ibiciro birazamuka ku masoko.'
Yongeyeho ko Isoko ry'u Rwanda rikiri kwiyubaka, gusa ashimangira ko abashoramari ryakira ari abantu bamaze gufata icyemezo cyo gushora imari y'igihe kirekire, badashobora gupfa guhindura ibyemezo byabo bishingiye ku biri kuba muri ako kanya.
Ati 'Kugeza uyu munota, ibigo by'ubucuruzi byose byanditswe ku isoko ry'imari n'imigabane ry'u Rwanda n'impapuro mpeshamwenda za Leta biracyameze neza.'
Ni iki cyateye iri hungabana?
Ikibazo cyatangiye mu ntangiriro za Kanama ubwo Ibiro bya Amerika bishinzwe Imibare y'Abakozi bashyiraga hanze raporo igaragaza ko muri Nyakanga, umubare w'abaturage ba Amerika babonye akazi wari ibihumbi 144 gusa.
Uyu mubare wari muto kuko byari byitezwe ko nibura abantu ibihumbi 175 cyangwa hafi yabo, ari bo bagombaga kubona akazi muri uko kwezi.
Ibi byabaye ikimenyetso cyereka abashoramari ko ubukungu bwa Amerika butifashe neza kuko iyo bigenda gutyo, imibare y'ababona akazi yari kuzamuka. Ubu bwoba bwatumye hari abatekereza ko ubukungu bwa Amerika bushobora kuba buri mu nzira zo gusubira inyuma (recession) bityo bamwe mu bashoramari batangira gukura amafaranga yabo ku Isoko ry'Imari n'Imigabane rya New York (NYSE) bayimurira mu rindi shoramari rigira ibyago bike byo guhomba.
Gusubira inyuma k'ubukungu bwa Amerika ni ingingo imaze amezi arenga atandatu ihangayikishije abashoramari, aho kuri iyi nshuro yatijwe umurindi n'igabanuka ry'ababonye akazi muri Nyakanga.
Igiteye impungenge kandi, ni uko Banki Nkuru ya Amerika (Federal Reserve) idakora amavugurura yatuma ubukungu bwa Amerika bwongera kuzamuka, ubwoba bw'uko bwasubira inyuma bukavaho.
Amavugurura Banki Nkuru ya Amerika isabwa gukora ni ukugabanya inyungu fatizo yayo, kuri ubu iri hagati ya 5.25% na 5.50%. Ni ubwa mbere mu myaka 40, iyi nyungu yari igeze kuri uru rwego kuko hagati ya 2010 na 2019, hejuru yari yarageze hari kuri 2.50% mu 2018.
Covid-19 iracyadukurikirana
Icyemezo cya Banki Nkuru ya Amerika cyo kuzamura inyungu fatizo gifite imizi mu 2020 ubwo Covid-19 yatangiraga kwibasira icyo gihugu.
Icyo gihe, umusaruro waraganutse kuko abantu batakoraga nyuma y'ingamba za guma mu rugo, icyakora bagombaga gukomeza kubaho, bivuze ko bahabwaga amafaranga y'ubuntu.
Aya mafaranga kugira ngo aboneke, Banki Nkuru ya Amerika yakoze 'amafaranga mashya' afite agaciro ka miliyari ibihumbi 3.3$ mu 2020 gusa. Aya mafaranga yari hafi 20% by'amadolari yose yakoreshwaga mu gihugu.
Ku rundi ruhande, muri Werurwe 2020, Banki Nkuru ya Amerika yagabanyije inyungu fatizo iyigeza hagati ya 0% na 025% kugira ngo abantu boroherwe no kubona amafaranga yo gukora imirimo yabo (binyuze mu nguzanyo n'ibindi), bityo ingaruka za Covid-19 ntizibe nyinshi cyane ku bukungu.
Iyo amafaranga abaye menshi mu baturage kuruta umusaruro w'ibyo bakora, kenshi igikunze kuvamo ni izamuka ry'ibiciro ridasanzwe (inflation) ari nacyo kibazo ibihugu byinshi byo ku Isi byagize nyuma ya Covid-19, kuko byabaye abaturage amafaranga benshi kandi ibyo bakora byaragabanutse, bityo ibiciro bikazamuka. Gusa ku rundi ruhande, ntitwavuga ko izi ngamba zitari zikwiriye, kuko henshi nta kindi cyashobokaga.
Ubusanzwe, Banki Nkuru ya Amerika iba yifuza ko izamuka ry'ibiciro ritarenga impuzandengo ya 2% icyakora bitewe n'amafaranga menshi yari mu baturage ndetse n'izindi mpamvu zitandukanye, muri Kamena 2022, iri zamuka ryari rimaze kugera ku 9.1%, ibyaherukaga mu 1981.
Mu ntego za Banki Nkuru z'ibihugu harimo guhangana n'izamuka ridasanzwe ry'ibiciro, aho zibikora zigabanya amafaranga ari gukoreshwa n'abaturage, ibi bikagerwaho binyuze mu buryo butandukanye burimo kuzamura inyungu ku nguzanyo, bikorwa binyuze mu kuzamura inyungu fatizo ya Banki Nkuru.
Mwibuke, muri Werurwe 2020 inyungu fatizo ya Banki Nkuru ya Amerika yari hagati ya 0% na 0.25%, ariko byageze muri Nyakanga 2023 iyi nyungu imaze kugera hagati ya 5.25% na 5.50%.
Muri icyo gihe, ibi byarumvikanaga kuko izamuka ry'ibiciro ryari riteye impungenge ndetse byagize umumaro kuko kugeza muri Kamena uyu mwaka, izamuka ry'ibiciro ryari ryaraganutse cyane, riri kuri 2.97%.
Banki Nkuru nk'igikoresho cya politiki?
Magingo aya, ubukungu bwa Amerika bugeze ku rwego abashoramari bifuza cyane ko inyungu fatizo ya Banki Nkuru y'icyo gihugu yagabanywa. Mu bushakashatsi bwakozwe na Yahoo Finance, bwagaragaje ko nibura 92% by'abacuruza imigabane ku Isoko ry'Imari n'Imigabane rya New York (NYSE), bifuza ko iyo nyungu yagabanuka.
Imwe mu mpamvu ikomeye ni uko iyo nyungu igira ingaruka ku bigo bito byanditswe kuri iryo Soko, ahanini bitewe n'uko bigorwa no kubona inguzanyo bikenera mu rwego rwo kwaguka.
Niyo mpamvu, nubwo muri rusange Isoko rya NYSE ari rinini, usanga igice kinini cyaryo cyihariye n'ibigo bike bikomeye, mu gihe ibigo bito byakira ishoramari rike, ahanini kuko bidashobora kubona amafaranga aturutse mu nguzanyo, ashobora kubifasha kwagura imishinga yabyo bityo bikanakurura abashoramari babigirira icyizere ku isoko ry'imari n'imigabane.
Ikindi ni uko kuzamuka kw'inyungu fatizo bigabanya umubare w'abagura ibicuruzwa, kandi iki gice kikaba kigize 68% by'ubukungu bwa Amerika.
Mu 2022, ibigurwa n'Abanyamerika byazamutse ku kigero cya 2.8% nyamara mu mwaka wari wabanje, uyu mubare wari ku 8.3%. Inyungu ku nguzanyo z'inzu nazo zikubye kabiri zigera kuri 6%, bituma umubare w'abagura inzu ugabanukaho 15% mu 2023.
Ibi byose bishyira Banki Nkuru ya Amerika ku gitutu kuko inyungu fatizo yayo ibangamiye ubucuruzi, icyakora iki gitutu nacyo gishobora kubyara ibindi bibazo.
Impamvu nyamukuru ni Amatora ya Perezida ategerejwe muri Amerika. Aya Matora, atuma buri mukandida yifuza ko Banki Nkuru igira imyitwarire runaka ishobora kumufasha kuzitwara neza.
Nka Donald Trump avuga ko inyungu fatizo ya Banki Nkuru 'iremeye ku bukungu bw'igihugu,' ariko nanone akongeraho ko kuyigabanya habura igihe gito ngo amatora akorwe 'bidakwiriye,' kuko bishobora gutuma ubukungu bwitwara neza mu mezi make mbere y'uko Amatora aba, ibi bikaba bishobora guha Abademokarate amahirwe yo kubona amajwi menshi, cyane ko iterambere ry'ubukungu ari imwe mu ngingo za mbere zigenderwaho mu guhitamo umukandida muri kiriya gihugu.
Mu kwirinda ibi, Trump yifuza ko icyemezo cyo kugabanya inyungu fatizo cyazaba nyuma y'amatora, mu Nama ya Banki Nkuru itegerejwe mu Ugushyingo uyu mwaka.
Ku rundi ruhande, Abasenateri batatu bo mu Bademokarate baherutse kwandikira Guverineri wa Banki Nkuru ya Amerika, Jerome Powell, bamusaba kugabanya inyungu fatizo kugira ngo imbaraga zakoreshejwe n'Abademokarate mu kugabanya izamuka ry'ibiciro ku isoko, rigaragarire no mu iterambere ry'ubukungu muri rusange bityo bagire amahirwe yo gutsinda.
Powell avuga ko mu gufata icyemezo, batazashingira kuri ibi byose, ahubwo bazashingira ku bizaba bigaragazwa n'imibare.
Rwabukumba avuga ko mu gihe ibyo muri Amerika bitari byasobanuka neza, bishoboka ko iri hungabana rishobora kuzagaruka, nubwo ibimenyetso byerekana ko riri kugenza make.
Ati 'Amasoko ashingira ku cyizere cy'abashoramari, amarangamutima, amakuru ahari n'ibyitezwe mu bihe biri imbere. Hari amatora muri Amerika tutazi uko bizagenda, hari intambara zikomeje kuba n'izishobora kuba hirya no hino, ibyo byose rero bituma abantu bakura amafaranga yabo ku masoko y'imari n'imibagabane, bakajya kuyashora mu bintu bifite ibyago bike byo guhomba [nk'inzu n'ibindi nk'ibyo].'
Ishoramari mu Buyapani; inkota y'amugi abiri
U Buyapani ni Igihugu gifite ubukungu bwa kane bunini ku Isi gusa ibi ubwabyo ntibihagije ku buryo icyemezo cyafatwa na Banki Nkuru y'icyo gihugu (BOJ) cyatugiraho ingaruka z'ako kanya.
Muri Werurwe uyu mwaka, ni bwo bwa mbere u BOJ yazamuye inyungu fatizo mu myaka 15, yongera kubikora muri Nyakanga uyu mwaka, aho iyi nyungu yageze kuri 0.25%.
Kugira ngo twumve neza impamvu y'iri zamuka n'ingaruka zaryo, ni ngombwa kumenya iby'ingenzi byaranze ubukungu bw'u Buyapani.
Kuva Intambara ya Kabiri y'Isi yarangira, Amerika n'ibindi bihugu byayitsinze byafashe icyemezo cyiza cyo gufasha u Buyapani kwiyubaka, aho kubushyiriraho ibihano bikakaye byashobora gutuma abaturage babwo barakara, bakaba bazateza indi ntambara yo kwihorera mu minsi iri imbere.
Iri ni isomo rikomeye ryizwe nyuma y'Intambara ya Mbere y'Isi, ubwo u Budage bwatsinzwe bwahabwaga ibihano bikakaye cyane, bigatuma abaturage babwo boroherwa no kumva Adolph Hitler wari ufite imigambi yo kwihorera, ibyo byose bikaba urufatiro rwavuyemo Intambara ya Kabiri y'Isi.
Gusa byageze mu 1968 u Buyapani bumaze kuba igihugu cya kabiri gifite ubukungu bunini ku Isi, nyuma gato ya Amerika nyuma yo kumara imyaka 10 buzamuka ku mpuzandengo iri hejuru ya 10% buri mwaka.
Mu gihe ubukungu bwazamukaga kuri uwo muvuduko, birumvikana ko Abayapani benshi batangiye gushaka aho bashora amafaranga yabo, ubutaka n'inzu zo guturamo ziza mu by'imbere.
Bitewe n'uko ubukungu bwazamukaga cyane, ubutaka n'inzu mu Buyapani byahawe agaciro karenze kure agaciro ka nyako ku kigero kigera kuri 80%, ku buryo ubutaka bushobora kugura miliyoni 20 Frw bwashoboraga kugura miliyoni 100 Frw. Muri make, igiciro cy'ubutaka n'inzu cyari gikubye inshuro eshanu igiciro gikwiriye.
Kubera ko ubutaka n'inzu byari imari ishyushye, banki zabishoyemo amafaranga ku buryo hagati 50% na 70% by'inguzanyo zose za banki zajyaga mu bijyanye no gufasha abakiliya kugura inzu n'ubutaka, cyane cyane mu Murwa Mukuru wa Tokyo.
Kuko ubutaka n'inzu ari bimwe mu bikoreshwa nk'ingwate mu kubona inguzanyo, byatumaga abantu babona inguzanyo ziruta agaciro k'ingwate, bityo inzego zishinzwe kureberera ubukungu zitangira kubyitaho.
Ku rundi ruhande, agaciro k'Isoko ry'Imari n'Imigabane rya Tokyo kikubye inshuro enye zose hagati ya 1982 na 1989, nabyo birushaho gutera ubwoba Banki Nkuru y'Igihugu dore ko inyungu fatizo yagiraga uruhare muri ibi byose.
Icyakora ahagana mu 1989, BOJ yafashe icyemezo cyo kuzamura inyungu fatizo ku buryo byageze mu 1990 iyi nyungu igeze kuri 6%.
Gusa ibi byagize ingaruka zikomeye kuko abari barafashe inguzanyo bashingiye ku ngwate y'ubutaka n'inzu batangiye kubura uko bishyura amafaranga yabo, aho muri banki nyinshi inyuzanyo zitishyurwa neza zari hagati ya 20% na 30%.
Iki kibazo cyatumye banki zigabanya gutanga inguzanyo, bigira ingaruka mbi ku bucuruzi, abakozi benshi barirukanwa ndetse imiryango myinshi itakaza ubwizigamire bwayo, bwabarirwaga hagati ya miliyari ibihumbi 6$ na miliyari ibihumbi 15$ mu myaka yakurikiyeho. Kubona akazi ku rubyiruko byabaye ingume, mu gihe ubukungu bw'u Buyapani butongeye kuzamuka ku muvuduko bwari mu myaka ya 1980. Ibi nibyo bizwi nka 'Japanese Lost Decade.'
Igisubizo kitashobotse
Kongera kubyutsa ubukungu bwahungabanye kuri iki kigero ni ikintu gikomeye, uretse ko BOJ yakoze ibishoboka byose ikagabanya inyungu fatizo yayo, yageze kuri 0% mu 1999.
Ibi ariko nta kinini byahinduye kuko ubukungu bwakomeje kuzamuka ku kigero kiri hasi cyane, cya 1% ndetse rimwe na rimwe nko mu gihe habaye ihungabana ry'ubukungu ku rwego rw'Isi, nko mu 2008, bukagabanuka munsi ya 0%.
Kugabanya inyungu fatizo byatumye ifaranga ry'u Buyapani (Yen), ritakaza agaciro ugereranyije n'idolari rya Amerika, ibizwi nka 'depreciation,' ingingo yakomeje kugeza no muri ibi bihe.
Nko mu myaka itanu ishize, ifaranga ry'u Buyapani ryatakaje 40% by'agaciro karyo ugereranyije n'idolari, icyakora ibi ntabwo ari ikibazo cyane kuko byatumye ibicuruzwa by'u Buyapani bibasha kugurwa cyane ku isoko mpuzamahanga, cyane ko ubukungu bw'icyo gihugu bushingira ku byoherezwa mu mahanga.
Ku ruhande rumwe, uku gutakaza agaciro ni byiza ku bukungu bufite imiterere nk'iy'u Buyapani, cyane ko ari igihugu gishingiye ubukungu bwacyo ku byoherezwa mu mahanga, urwego rwihariye hejuru ya 185 by'umusaruro mbumbe w'igihugu.
Uretse ibi kandi, hari n'andi mahirwe akomoka ku igabanuka ry'agaciro k'ifaranga.
'Carry Trade' yari iroshye Isi
Gutakaza agaciro k'ifaranga ry'u Buyapani, Yen, byabaye amahirwe y'ishoramari ku bandi. Kubera ko kubona iri faranga byoroshye, abashoramari bafataga ama-Yen ahendutse mu Buyapani, bakayahinduramo amadolari, ubundi bakayashora ku masoko nk'ayo muri Amerika afite inyungu iri hejuru, yaba mu kugura impapuro mpeshamwenda za Leta n'imigabane ku Isoko ry'Imari n'Imigabane rya NYSE.
Ikinyuranyo cy'ayo mafaranga niyo nyungu y'umucuruzi, icyakora kugira ngo ubu bucuruzi bugende neza, bisaba ko ifaranga rimwe, nk'iri-yen, riba riri hasi kandi bikamara igihe kirekire.
U Buyapani bwamaze imyaka myinshi bufite inyungu fatizo iri kuri 0% ku buryo ubwo ryakomezaga gutakaza agaciro imbere y'idolari, bitigeze bikanga abashoramari.
Icyakora ku rundi ruhande, BOJ yaje kubona ko ari ngombwa kuzamura agaciro k'ifaranga ryabo cyane cyane nyuma y'uko ubukungu butangiye kugaragaza ibimenyetso by'uko bitangiye kuzamuka, ibyagaragariye mu nyungu y'ibigo byo mu Buyapani yakomeje kuzamuka, ibi bikazamura ishoramari ku isoko ry'imari n'imigabane rya Tokyo ari nako ababona akazi biyongera.
Mu gihe bimeze gutyo, BOJ yagombaga guhangana n'ikintu cyatuma ibiciro bizamuka ku isoko, ari nayo mpamvu gukomeza agaciro k'ifaranga ry'iri-yen byari ingenzi cyane.
Kugeza ubu inyungu fatizo ya BOJ iri kuri 0.50% kandi hari ubwoba bw'uko izakomeza kuzamuka. Ibi byahise bigira ingaruka ku ivunjisha aho iri-yen ryahise rigira imbaraga. Kuri ubu idolari rimwe rivunjwa ama-yen 147, nyamara mu mezi atatu ashize, ryavunjwaga 160. Byitezwe ko mu mwaka utaha, rishobora kuzagera ku ma-yen 135.
Uku kuzamura agaciro k'iri faranga bigira ingaruka kuri bamwe bakora ubucuruzi bwa 'carry trade' kuko iyo bagaruye amadolari baje kuyavunja mu ma-yen, basanga amafaranga yararushijeho kugira agaciro kari hejuru bityo inyungu ikaba nke, rimwe na rimwe bakajya mu bihombo.
Ibi nabyo byabaye impamvu ibintu byacitse ku masoko y'imari n'imigabane kuko ubwo agaciro k'iri-yen ku idolari katangiraga kuzamuka, abafashe inguzanyo muri iri faranga bahise batangira gucuruza imigabane n'ibindi bashoyemo imari, kugira ngo bajye kwishyura inguzanyo bafashe iri faranga rigifite agaciro.
Muri rusange, iri hungabana ryabayeho ntabwo ryakomeje kuko henshi amasoko y'imari n'imigabane yongeye kubura umutwe, gusa abahanga mu by'ubukungu bavuga ko iki kibazo gishobora kugaruka ahanini bitewe n'ibyemezo bizafatwa n'abashinzwe urwego rw'imari hirya no hino ku Isi, cyane cyane muri Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika.
Ubwoba bw'intambara hagati ya Iran na Israel nabwo bushobora guhindura ibintu kuko ibiciro bya peteroli bishobora kuzamuka ku rwego mpuzamahanga, mu gihe amatora ya Perezida muri Amerika nayo ategerejwe cyane, ibi byose bikaba bishobora gutuma abashoramari bagira icyizere, ari nabyo byiza kuri buri wese.
Mu gihe bitagenda gutyo ariko, ibintu birushaho kugana habi. Rwabukumba yavuze ko 'bishobora no gukomeza gutya, abashoramari bakeneye kubona ko ejo hazaza ari heza, nibyo bifasha ubukungu bwacu.'
Yashimangiye ko kugira Afurika yirinde kujya ifatirwa mu byago nk'ibi, ikwiriye 'Kongera ubucuruzi hagati yacu, tugakuraho imbogamizi zose. Biriya byo kudafungura imipaka bibangamira ubucuruzi.'
Yashimangiye ko ibi ari urugendo, ati 'Imikoranire ya Afurika ntabwo yahera mu guhuza inzego z'imari, ikwiriye guhera mu guhuza ubukungu muri rusange. Mu gihe tugifite ingorane zibangamira ubucuruzi nk'imisoro ku mipaka, dufite ruswa n'ibindi byose bituma tutongera ubucuruzi hagati yacu, bizahora ari ikibazo.'
